Key Points
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Starlink is the biggest driver of SpaceX’s long-term value, making its growth rate a key metric to watch.
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The upside potential is enormous, but so is the downside risk.
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How the company executes on Starship and its planned new businesses will probably determine much about the stock’s direction.
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Predicting where any stock will trade four years out is guesswork, and that goes double for Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), the newly public company most people know as SpaceX. Still, since it now trades on the open market at around $150 per share, it’s worth walking through what a $5,000 stake might become by 2030, and, more important, what would have to go right or wrong for it to get there.
At roughly $150, $5,000 would buy about 33 shares. Every scenario that follows starts with that same handful of shares. The difference is what the market decides they’re worth once Starlink, Starship, and the company’s space-based computing ambitions play out.
The bull case: about $26,000
The optimistic path runs through Starlink. The satellite broadband unit already generates most of SpaceX’s revenue, and in a strong scenario, that business, paired with a successful Starship rocket, could push company revenue toward $60 billion to $70 billion by 2030. If that happens and investors keep paying a premium multiple for the company, the stock could reach the $800 range that the most bullish Wall Street analyst covering it — Brian Gesuale of Raymond James — has floated. That would turn $5,000 into roughly $26,000.
The base case: about $10,000
A more measured path assumes that Starlink keeps growing and Starship matures, but that the sky-high valuation cools as the company shifts from story to steady business. In that scenario, the share price could roughly double to around $300 over four years, which works out to growth of nearly 15% per year.
A $5,000 investment would then be worth close to $10,000. That would still be a strong result, and it’s probably the most realistic one if SpaceX’s execution stays on track.
The bear case: about $3,300
The downside risks are real. SpaceX could encounter more delays and difficulties in getting its Starship rockets ready for commercial use. Rival satellite networks such as Amazon‘s Kuiper could put pressure on Starlink’s pricing. The company’s orbital data center plans could take more time and money than promised to bring to fruition. Any of these issues would give investors a reason to stop paying a premium for a company with a market cap in the trillions. If the stock drifts down toward $100, an initial $5,000 stake bought now would shrink to about $3,300, a loss of roughly a third, and there’s room for it to fall further in a harsher outcome.
The width of the gap between the bear and bull numbers here, $3,300 versus $26,000, is the real message. It shows how much of SpaceX’s value rests on things that haven’t happened yet — and that may not. The single biggest swing factor is how Starlink performs: If the satellite broadband service keeps scaling profitably, the base and bull cases stay in play; if its growth stalls or competition bites into its profit margins, the bear case takes over.
Given that this company is so early in monetizing its biggest bets, those who open positions would be best advised to view them as long-term holdings, and keep their investment to a smaller size that reflects the potential for a wide range of outcomes. I would also use dollar-cost-averaging to gradually build any investment in SpaceX.
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Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
