August Nymex natural gas (NGQ26) on Thursday closed down -0.024 (-0.75%).
Nat-gas prices slid to a 2-week low on Thursday and settled lower after weekly US nat-gas storage rose more than expected. The EIA reported that weekly EIA nat-gas inventories rose by +87 bcf in the week ended June 26, above the consensus of +83 bcf.
Nat-gas prices maintained their losses on Thursday amid forecasts for cooler US weather, potentially reducing nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power air-conditioning. The Commodity Weather Group on Thursday said forecasts shifted cooler, with normal seasonal weather expected across the eastern two-thirds of the US from July 7-16.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Thursday was 111.7 bcf/day (+2.8% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Thursday was 79.1 bcf/day (+4.7% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday were 19.3 bcf/day (+1.5% w/w), according to BNEF.
Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices. On June 9, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 111.0 bcf/day from a May estimate of 110.6 bcf/day.
Nat-gas prices have medium-term support on the outlook for tighter global LNG supplies. On March 19, Qatar reported “extensive damage” at the world’s largest natural gas export plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City. Qatar said the attacks by Iran damaged 17% of Ras Laffan’s LNG export capacity, damage that will take three to five years to repair. The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, and a reduction in its capacity could boost US nat-gas exports.
As a negative factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute on Wednesday reported that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended June 27 fell -8.27% y/y to 91,142 GWh (gigawatt hours). However, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending June 27 rose +2.18% y/y to 4,339,625 GWh.
Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended June 26 rose by +87 bcf, above expectations of +84 bcf and above the 5-year weekly average of +64 bcf. As of June 26, nat-gas inventories were down -1.0% y/y, and +6.4% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of June 30, gas storage in Europe was 49% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 64% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported Thursday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 3 rose by +1 to 126 rigs, moderately below the 2.5-year high of 134 rigs set in February 2026.
