Key Points
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The beverage and snacks giant is experiencing weakness in North America, its largest single region.
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Still, despite the market’s bearish reaction, there were some encouraging numbers in that earnings report.
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Investors weren’t too eager to take a swig of PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) after the beverage and snacks giant reported second-quarter results early on Thursday. This, despite headline figures that — depending on which consensus numbers are used — beat analyst estimates. The company’s shares slid by more than 3% that trading session, contrasting poorly with the 0.8% rise of the bellwether S&P 500 index.
Let’s tuck into PepsiCo’s quarter to find out why it was such a flat, warm can of soda for many market players.
Where’s the fizz?
During the quarter, PepsiCo’s net revenue was just under $24.2 billion, up 6% year over year. The company’s net income under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) grew much more robustly, doubling and then some to almost $2.99 billion from the year-ago profit of $1.26 billion. Yet on a per-share, non-GAAP (adjusted, or “core” in company parlance) basis, net income only inched up by 4% to $2.20.
This meant a pair of beats for PepsiCo, though these were modest. On average, analysts tracking the stock were modeling net revenue of $23.9 billion and core earnings per share (EPS) of $2.19.
Despite the growth in key fundamentals, other metrics were lower this quarter. The company’s largest single market remains its native North America, so weakness there is always cause for concern. Second-quarter sales in the company’s food (i.e., snacks) business there fell by 2% year over year. And while revenue from its beverages rose by 7%, much of this was due to recently integrated acquisitions and partnerships. The latter included a deal with Celsius (NASDAQ:CELH) to distribute that company’s hotly popular drink line Alani Nu.
It’s revealing that overall volumes for North America beverages sank in spite of this, falling by 4%. And, when stripping out acquisitions and divestitures from the mix, that drinks unit saw only a 1% organic revenue gain.
In the conference call discussing the results, PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta attributed the U.S. declines to changes in consumer behavior. He speculated that the soaring price of gasoline was affecting traffic at convenience stores. This is a major sales channel for the company as items like its Pepsi and Doritos are often impulse buys for customers filling their tanks or taking a rest from driving.
International flavor
On a brighter note or two, PepsiCo performed better in markets abroad. Its international beverages business saw gains in both volume (5%) and, especially, reported revenue (11%, or 9% when adjusted for foreign currency exchange). Better, since those acquisitions were concentrated on U.S. products, that overseas growth was entirely organic.
The company’s snacks also proved to be popular outside our borders. Standouts in this category were Asia Pacific and Latin America foods, which saw reported revenue growth of 15% and 12%, respectively.
So basically, PepsiCo had two diverging trajectories — the sluggishness of the North America operations, and the dynamism of its international efforts. The latter should help the company achieve growth in the coming quarters — it reiterated its guidance for full-year 2026, forecasting organic revenue growth of 2% to 4% over 2025, with a rise in core, constant-currently EPS of 4% to 6%.
Importantly for this Dividend King — PepsiCo is one of the rare companies that has declared dividend raises at least once annually for a minimum of 50 years running — it expects to distribute $7.9 billion in shareholder payouts during the year. That’s up from the $7.6 billion it spent last year. Management also intends to devote $1 billion to share buybacks.
Potential yield trap
I think PepsiCo still has some way to go in order to become an investor favorite again. Those slumps in the North America business are concerning and, outside of the unlikely possibility that international growth rockets much higher, softness in that market will negatively affect both the fundamentals and investor perception of the business.
A longer-term issue for PepsiCo is that, in many ways, it’s a poster boy for unhealthy food and drink consumption. That served it well for decades, but this century’s trend — at least on our shores — is towards more considered, healthier eating and quaffing. Yes, PepsiCo has diet/no-sugar drinks and moderately better-for-you snacks. But it’s still anchored by, and strongly identified with, goodies like Pepsi and Cheetos.
As for shareholder remuneration, PepsiCo is not only a Dividend King, its payout is bubbling into high-yield territory at almost 4.3%. This, however, is largely due to a weakened share price, which, after earnings, was teasing its one-year low.
While the dividend might be an attractive draw for investors hungry for yield or sniffing around for a bargain, that wouldn’t tip me into buying the stock. I don’t see either North America beverages or food improving much, and PepsiCo’s wares aren’t popular enough abroad to offset this significantly.
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Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Celsius Holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
